The National Hurricane Center has officially upgraded Tropical Depression Nine into Tropical Storm Isaias, and it is likely to become our first hurricane of the season before making landfall, probably along the central Gulf Coast early Saturday morning.
We have been monitoring this area for days, and over the last 24 to 36 hours, we have noticed that the low-pressure area that developed on Monday has become better organized. Hurricane hunters, specifically The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Gulfstream jet, have been flying around the system and will continue to investigate it throughout the next few days.
The National Hurricane Center reported maximum sustained winds were around 40 mph on Wednesday.
No coastal watches or warnings are currently in effect, but this will likely change as early as Wednesday evening across parts of the Gulf Coast.
Due to the threat, Gov. Ron DeSantis declared a state of emergency for 25 counties across the state.
The tropical storm is expected to continue moving east-northeast during the next couple of days. By Friday, the system should start turning northeast as it approaches the northern Gulf Coast of the United States.
Sea surface temperatures are running around 1.8 degrees above average for this time of year across the Gulf. There is not only plenty of warm water, but it also extends very deep. Therefore, there is plenty of fuel available for the system to intensify.
The main factor working against this system is strong wind shear dropping from the continental United States toward the Southeast. So, even though the system has plenty of time and warm water to intensify, wind shear could definitely limit its development.
The big question remains: Which factor will win out first? If the system intensifies as it moves northward, it could still arrive at the U.S. Gulf Coast as a hurricane. If the wind shear catches the system before it gains substantial strength, it could arrive as a strong tropical storm or perhaps a lower-end Category 1 hurricane. As of early Wednesday, the National Hurricane Center has the system approaching the Mississippi-Alabama coast, or nearby areas, possibly as a Category 2 hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 110 mph on Friday evening.
Rainfall was recorded from Monday afternoon through Tuesday afternoon across Florida. The slow-moving front will push rain southward.
What are the possible effects in Florida?
Florida will continue to receive heavy rain through much of this week. Remember, the rain we have been receiving this week has mainly been due to local effects across the southern half of Florida, as well as a stationary frontal boundary across Central Florida, North Florida and the Panhandle.
This frontal boundary will continue to meander around the region at least through Thursday, so expect periods of heavy rain that could lead to flash flooding in some areas.
Forecast rainfall between Tuesday and evening and Sunday evening.
The Weather Prediction Center continues to place portions of Florida, especially areas from Central Florida through the Lake Okeechobee region, under a marginal risk for flash flooding.
By Friday into Saturday, the Weather Prediction Center highlights the western portion of the Panhandle, from areas just west and south of Tallahassee through Pensacola, under a slight risk for flash flooding due to the approaching tropical system.
Florida needs to closely monitor any shift in the track toward the east, as a closer path could potentially bring rounds of heavy rain across the Peninsula.
As of Wednesday, the forecast track is far enough west for much of Florida to receive only sporadic rain bands associated with the system. If the system’s path shifts farther east, however, we could see more persistent rainfall and a higher threat of tornadoes.
The National Hurricane Center reports rainfall totals of around 4 to 6 inches from Tropical Storm Isaias across the western Panhandle. Parts of the Tampa Bay area could also receive around 4 inches of rain.
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