Republican U.S. Sen. Ashley Moody will keep her seat in Washington, D.C., after winning a special election Tuesday night against Democrat Angie Nixon, in a race that was much tighter than political observers predicted just a few months ago.

The Associated Press called the race for Moody at 8:35 p.m., when the vote tally sat at 50.9% for Moody to Nixon’s 47.9%. Non-party affiliated candidate Neil Gillespie secured 1.1%.

Moody is the incumbent, but this was her first time running for the seat. 

In her victory speech Tuesday in Tampa, she called Florida a “firewall” to socialism.

“What a night, what a win. You know, throughout this campaign, I said the election would come down between freedom versus socialism. Well, Florida chose freedom,” Moody told her supporters gathered at Hotel Haya. “The folks that were showing up (to the polls) just moved here in the last five years, and they were desperate to hold to what we’ve built here in this state. … I said, we’re going to make ‘don’t mess with Texas’ and ‘don’t tread on me’ look PG. In Florida, we say ‘don’t F with Florida.’”

But in a state that Republican President Donald Trump won by 13 points just two years, Nixon and statewide Democrats made gains that tracked more closely to the near 50/50 split between Republicans and Democrats that Florida historically had as recently as 2018.

Nixon conceded the race shortly before 9 p.m. At her Election Night headquarters in her hometown of Jacksonville, the 42-year-old outgoing state representative began her speech with a call for a “Duuuval” to rally supporters despite the loss.

She said the results would not deter her from fighting for workers against corporate influence and power, and for securing healthcare and Social Security for senior citizens.

“I want to say something to every single person who has been a part of this journey. I’m so incredibly proud of what we’ve built together. Tonight, the results were not what we worked for; they are not what we hoped for. And I know there are a lot of people in this room who are hurting right now. But I’m an organizer, not a politician,” Nixon said at the Phoenix Arts District’s Emerald Station in the historic Springfield neighborhood.

“And organizers don’t quit on the mission just because one option closes. So I want you all to hear me when I say this: We may not have won this election, but the outcome will not stop us from getting up tomorrow to continue the fight for what everyday hard-working Floridians need and deserve.”

Jacksonville native and U.S. Senate candidate Angie Nixon speaks to her supporters inside the Emerald Station at the Phoenix Arts & Innovation District after the Associated Press called the race for Senator-elect Ashley Moody on Tuesday, Nov. 3, 2026. | Will Brown, Jacksonville Today

Tuesday’s U.S. Senate race was a special election to fill the remaining term of former Sen. Marco Rubio, who was tapped two years ago by President Trump to serve as U.S. secretary of state. 

Moody was Florida attorney general when Gov. Ron DeSantis appointed her to the Senate seat in 2024. She will hold the seat for two more years and then will be up from reelection in 2028.

Nixon has represented Jacksonville in the Florida House since 2020, and the U.S. Senate race was her first attempt at statewide office. Nixon’s national profile has been on the rise since her surprise but comfortable win in the August Democratic primary over Lt. Col. Alex Vindman.

Nixon carried her home base of Duval County on Tuesday, where since 2023 Democrats have been making countywide gains in local elections, 54.9% to 44.1%

Democratic City Council member Reggie Gaffney Jr. told Jacksonville Today at the Nixon headquarters that, although Nixon didn’t take Florida, the local vote is a bright spot for Democrats.

“It goes to show you that the induvals in Duval are sick and tired of the gas prices, the rent costs, food. They’re ready for a change,” Gaffney said. “This is the second time in the last three to four months that Duval has went blue. That is encouraging.”

Nixon and Moody campaigns

During the primary, Nixon reported having less than $1 million on hand before the vote. But that changed during the general.

Nixon’s fundraising surged to a total $11.695 million between her campaign and victory fund as of Oct. 14. Moody still outraised her with a reported $24.85 million between her campaign, victory fund and victory committee.

Despite momentum for Democrats nationwide, including some in what were considered safe Republican states just a few months ago, national election watchers had largely written off the Florida Senate race.

There was some tightening in polling in the final days of the campaign. The last New York Times/Siena University Poll taken Oct. 19-25 had Moody beating Nixon by six points — 50% to 44%. But the Cook Political Report recently moved the odds in Nixon’s direction, taking the Florida Senate seat from a “Solid R” to “Likely R,” but still predicting a win for Moody.

Two weeks before election day, the University of North Florida Public Opinion Research Lab had Moody up by four points.

Moody’s win came as Nixon closed the statewide gap the Democrats experienced during the 2024 U.S. Senate race by nearly 10 points. Two years ago, Sen. Rick Scott defeated his Democratic challenger, Debbie Mucarsel-Powell, 55.6% to 42.8%. 

In 2018, the last time there was both an open governor’s race and U.S. Senate seat on the ballot together, Scott defeated Democrat incumbent Bill Nelson by 13,033 votes. It was the same year that saw a razor-thin 49.6% to 49.2% margin between Republican DeSantis and Democrat Andrew Gillum, respectively.

The 2024 Hope Florida scandal, in which Nixon made Moody’s alleged role central to her messaging, appeared not to have a campaign-killing narrative for Moody.

The controversy involved DeSantis’ administration diverting $10 million from a Medicaid settlement to the nonprofit Hope Florida Foundation. That organization was connected to First Lady Casey DeSantis, but much of the money went to DeSantis-tied political action committees and funded a campaign against Amendment 3 before voters in 2024. 

A leaked grand jury report, which was later ordered expunged by an appellate court, named Moody, who was state attorney general at the time. It found that the DeSantis administration “misappropriated” the funds and Moody“authorized” the settlement agreement, which included the money that would be transferred to the Hope Florida Foundation, according to a News Service of Florida report in August.

On the trail, Mooday largely distanced herself from the scandal, in one interview saying “any insinuations have been totally political. They’re absurd.”
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