Nor’easter-like conditions could cause flooding along Florida coast

Florida’s East Coast is facing an extended period of onshore winds and high seas, which could become problematic over the next week.
The combination of persistent winds, rough surf and large waves is expected to contribute to coastal flooding, beach erosion and hazardous marine conditions.
The first onslaught will be into the upcoming week, which will feature a tight pressure gradient around a ridge of high pressure and a passing cold front.
Wave height forecast for the Atlantic.
A developing coastal storm in the Atlantic will help to enhance effects during the workweek, but the low-pressure system will stay well offshore.
The National Hurricane Center is monitoring the area for subtropical development but gives the area a medium chance of development over the next seven days.
Direct effects, if any, would occur from the mid-Atlantic into the Northeast and New England and well away from the Sunshine State.
Despite being hundreds of miles away from the main weather makers, wind gusts could still reach as high as 45 mph in some locales, particularly along the immediate coastline.
Sustained northeasterly or easterly winds will help push water toward Florida’s coastline and into waterways that empty into the ocean, many of which are already at bankfull due in part to heavy rains during Isaias.
According to National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration water gauges, nearly 40 locations across Florida are reporting high water levels, while approximately half a dozen have reached or are forecast to reach flood stage.
The affected waterways include portions of the St. Johns River in northern and central Florida, as well as sections of the St. Marys River along the Florida-Georgia border.
Water gauge map: Green icon indicates no flooding. Yellow icon indicates near flood stage. Orange icon indicates minor flooding. Red icon indicates moderate flooding. | National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
The St. Johns River at Astor, near the Volusia and Lake County line, has already reached minor flood stage, with moderate flood stage expected to be reached in the near future.
Flooding effects will depend on the duration of the gusty winds and tidal cycles, both of which will be enhanced over the next several days.
Docks, boat ramps and low-lying roadways tend to be the most vulnerable, especially during times of high tide.
Beach erosion is another concern as rough surf and elevated water levels impact east coast beaches.
Erosion could be problematic since much of the state has missed out on major swells during the hurricane season.
Forecast models indicate that seas could approach 15 feet well offshore, which is particularly hazardous for smaller vessels.
Areas along North Carolina’s Outer Banks have already experienced flooding, and some communities have even issued mandatory evacuations for visitors.
While the surf along Florida’s east coast is not expected to be as problematic as conditions along the Outer Banks, temporary inconveniences remain possible.
At times around high tide, portions of beaches may be difficult or unsafe for use.
Beachgoers should always be cautious around the ocean and pay close attention to local warning flags.
A lifeguard stand with a single red flag indicates strong surf and a high risk of rip currents, while a double red flag means the water is closed to swimmers.
Occasionally, purple flags are used to alert swimmers to dangerous marine life, such as jellyfish and man o’ war.
Rip current safety. Know what the flags mean.
Water levels could remain elevated through the upcoming full moon, which will peak Oct. 27.
King tides occur because of the gravitational pull of the sun and the moon during new moon and full moon cycles.
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